@article{https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70080,

title = {Potential Spatial Mismatches Between Marine Predators and Their Prey in the Southern Hemisphere in Response to Climate Change},

author = {Maria Bas and Jazel Ouled-Cheikh and Alba Fuster-Alonso and Laura Julià and David March and Francisco Ramírez and Luis Cardona and Marta Coll},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.70080},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70080},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-01-01},

urldate = {2025-01-01},

journal = {Global Change Biology},

volume = {31},

number = {2},

pages = {e70080},

abstract = {ABSTRACT Global change is rapidly reshaping species' habitat suitability ranges, hence leading to significant shifts in the distribution of marine life. Contrasting distributional responses among species can alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey, potentially disrupting trophic interactions and affecting food web dynamics. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in the spatial overlap of habitat suitability ranges for trophically related species, including crustaceans, fish, penguins, and pinnipeds across 12 Large Marine Ecosystems from the Southern Hemisphere, merged into three primary regions: South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. To this aim, we first use Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to hindcast and project species-specific changes in suitable habitat from 1850 to 2100 under two future climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low climate forcing) and SSP5-8.5 (high climate forcing). We then analyze changes in species habitat suitability and potential predator–prey spatial overlaps. Findings reveal that marine species generally exhibit changes in their suitable habitats, with pronounced shifts towards higher latitudes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, contrasting trends emerge among predators across functional groups and regions of South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. These variations highlight the need for species and regional-specific management responses. We also project contrasting spatial mismatches between predators and prey: predators experiencing declines in suitable habitat tend to exhibit greater overlap with their prey in future scenarios, whereas those with expanding suitable habitat show reduced spatial overlap with their prey. This study provides valuable insights that can inform spatial management strategies in response to climate change and illustrate how climate change may weaken species' ability to adapt to climate-driven environmental changes due to trophic disruptions.},

note = {e70080 GCB-24-3556.R1},

keywords = {boosted regression trees, Climate change, IOS4DOM, predator, prey, Southern Hemisphere, spatial overlap, trophic mismatch},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{BAS2024174752,

title = {Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere},

author = {Maria Bas and Jazel Ouled-Cheikh and Laura Julià and Alba Fuster-Alonso and David March and Francisco Ramírez and Luis Cardona and Marta Coll},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969724049015},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174752},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Science of The Total Environment},

volume = {948},

pages = {174752},

abstract = {Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1–2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5–8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5–8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5–8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.},

keywords = {Climate change, Commercial fish species, Hake, IOS4DOM, Small pelagic fishes, Southern Hemisphere, Species distribution models},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}